Climate Change Investigations


I have deleted what I wrote in 2009 because I am no longer happy that it is valid. I relied far too much on the objectivity of the 2007 IPCC report. I am no longer content to rely on this until I can carry out credibility checks on its stance.

We are given to understand that anthropogenic carbon-dioxide emissions will lead to increases in global temperatures, with potentially catastrophic consequences. But is this true? This claim consists of several parts,

1) That CO2 levels in the atmosphere are increasing, and will be double the present concentration by the end of the century if current trends continue;

2) That increases in atmospheric CO2 are anthropogenic;

3) That increasing CO2 leads to increases in global average temperature, specifically that doubling from 400 ppm to 800 ppm will cause the global average temperature to increase by 2.5 deg.C (plus or minus 1 deg.C);

4) That the resulting increase in global average temperature, or other effects of CO2 levels increased to 800 ppm, will lead to severe effects on the climate which will be seriously adverse for human life.

I have now independently examined the credibility of claims (1), (2) and (3).

Claims (1) and (2) are addressed by a simple model of my own here. The result is that claims (1) and (2) are borne out.

I have also independently examined Claim (3). My initial attempt at this, from 2009, is here. In May 2016 I produced a new model, based on the Maximum Entropy Production Principle, which I am rather happier with. It is here. The result is that Claim (3) is also borne out.

That leaves Claim (4), the crucial bit - the implications of CO2 increases and temperature rise. The claim that (say) a 3 deg.C increase in global average temperature would be severely adverse for human kind is entirely dependent upon climate models which are extremely complex, unverifiable and highly uncertain. How much faith should one have in them? It is not even clear to me that, as regards the planet as a whole, a temperature increase of this magnitude might not be beneficial. (Inevitably, though, some regions would be adversely impacted). In particular, increased CO2 concentrations will improve the growth rate of most vegetation, with significant implications for feeding the world population.


Read the Climate Change Facts(needs critical re-appraisal - watch this space)

My simple 2009 Model of Temperature Changes (no longer my best shot)

My simple 2016 Model of Temperature Changes(my best shot to-date)

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So, no energy being wasted here, then.